A Look at President Lai's National Security Team through Two Press Releases
United Daily News Commentary, October 12, 2024
Recently, the administration of President Lai Ching-te released two press statements closely related to the national security team.
First, the press release responding to the International Crisis Group's (ICG) report on cross-strait relations. Spokesman Wu Cheng of the DPP protested against the report. The ICG report provides the most detailed and candid description so far of how President Lai has deviated from Tsai Ing-wen's policies since taking office. Wu criticized the report, stating that it represents "a serious distortion of Taiwan's established international diplomatic strategy and appears to assist certain political forces, including Beijing, in interfering in Taiwan's internal affairs and sowing dissension." He further argued that "placing the blame solely on Taiwan for destabilizing regional peace is clearly revealing the said forces behind the report."
However, ICG staff member Michael Kovrig, a former Canadian diplomat, was just released after being imprisoned for six years in China, during which ICG continued to criticize Beijing. How can Taiwan accuse ICG of being a collaborator? Furthermore, the report also calls on China to cease its military threats, and its conclusions do not differ much from other international opinions. Is the Lai administration unable to tolerate even well-intentioned appeal to Beijing?
Second, the press release which followed the announcement of former President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to Europe, as reported by Central News Agency (CNA). The report highlighted that "whether it’s Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim assuming the role of deputy convener of the National Defense Resilience Commission or the initiation for Tsai to visit Europe, these actions demonstrate President Lai's intention to 'deploy the best of the best' in creating the strongest diplomatic team in Taiwan’s history."
This press release, which frequently cites "insiders," indirectly reflects President Lai's current mindset (assigning Hsiao to be deputy convener and sending Tsai overseas), showing a self-centered approach that appears to lack respect for the former head of state. The press release also emphasized that there is no rift between Tsai and Lai, stating that the two are "working together in a complementary way." However, this stress on their unity seems to confirm their underlying tensions. More importantly, it highlights the differences between Tsai and Lai on Taiwan's status and its future direction.
Finally, these two press releases from Lai's national security team reflect at least three notable characteristics:
For one, President Lai’s departure from Tsai’s policies: It is evident that Lai seeks to outshine his predecessor in terms of cross-strait relations rhetoric, which is understandable. However, the room for maneuvering in cross-strait relations is already very limited. Most of what can be said has been said, and introducing new concepts often leads to trouble. In his cross-strait narrative, besides emphasizing the concept that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to one another, President Lai has also pushed boundaries with the United States and China through unusual phrasing, such as referencing the "Treaty of Aigun" and "Motherland Theory." This reflects an attitude within his security team of seeking distinction through boldness, while no one around Lai seems capable of reining him in. When President Lai repeatedly mentions the concept that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to one another, Tsai Ing-wen privately advised him not to harp on the same string. This divergence is exactly what the ICG report pointed out. In fact, President Lai seems to be squandering Tsai’s political legacy in both international and cross-strait arenas.
Next, the United States is gradually losing patience with Lai: The United States is well aware of the differences between Tsai and Lai. Early last year, there were already media reports expressing some degree of "skepticism" towards Lai. And visiting officials and scholars, including AIT Chairperson Rosenberger, have repeatedly urged Taiwan to return to Tsai Ing-wen's established policy path. Right on election night, Lai did mention that he would act "according to the Republic of China constitutional framework," but it proved to be a perfunctory response. President Lai’s recent comments during Taiwan’s National Day, where he mentioned the "Motherland Theory," finally drew a warning from Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink. The implication was clear: Washington expects Lai to exercise extra caution in his National Day speeches.
President Lai’s national security team appears to be increasingly off-course and lacking coherence. Over the next few months, U.S.-China-Taiwan interactions will fall squarely under America's radar. With Chairperson Laura Rosenberger of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) on maternity leave, her responsibilities will be handed over to new AIT Director Raymond Greene. Given Greene's deep expertise in Taiwan affairs, it will be challenging for Taipei to mislead him. As a result, American pressure on Taiwan, especially on the Lai administration, is expected to tighten.
Third, President Lai’s national security team is inexperienced: Although President Lai inherited his national security team from Tsai Ing-wen, he lacks a relationship of trust with them. Senior advisors are not being well respected and deployed, and the few newly appointed high-ranking officials who have been entrusted with key responsibilities seem to lack the experience to handle them effectively. They frequently travel abroad, giving the appearance of busy bee, but their performance is below par.
The biggest shortcoming in the Lai administration is the absence of a seasoned veteran like former Minister of Foreign Affairs David Lee, who was an indispensable asset to Tsai. Secretary-General to the President Pan Men-an, while strong on domestic affairs, is not equipped to manage foreign policy at all, and Secretary-General Joseph Wu of the National Security Council, although experienced, does not seem to have President Lai’s full confidence.
Perhaps due to recent missteps, President Lai’s National Day address returned to a more conventional tone, but there is concern that this might be a touch and go for a while rather than a structural change. Rumors suggest that after the U.S. presidential election later this year, there will be a major reshuffle in the National Security Council, with President Lai replacing current officials with his own confidants. This raises concerns about what the future of Taiwan's foreign policy might look like under his leadership.
Photo from: United Daily News
Article from: https://udn.com/news/story/123072/8286446